{"id":4147,"date":"2025-07-07T08:52:23","date_gmt":"2025-07-06T23:52:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/?p=4147"},"modified":"2025-07-07T23:25:32","modified_gmt":"2025-07-07T14:25:32","slug":"continuous-outcome-clinical-prediction-model-internal-and-external-validation-ensuring-predictive-accuracy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/entry\/continuous-outcome-clinical-prediction-model-internal-and-external-validation-ensuring-predictive-accuracy\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9023\u7d9a\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30ab\u30e0\u306e\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\uff1a\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3092\u4fdd\u8a3c\u3059\u308b\u5185\u7684\u30fb\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u533b\u7642\u73fe\u5834\u3067\u60a3\u8005\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u5f37\u529b\u306a\u30c4\u30fc\u30eb\u3060\u3002\u7279\u306b\u8840\u5727\u3084\u8840\u7cd6\u5024\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a<strong>\u9023\u7d9a\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf<\/strong>\u3092\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30ab\u30e0\u3068\u3059\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u75c5\u72b6\u306e\u9032\u884c\u4e88\u6e2c\u3084\u6cbb\u7642\u52b9\u679c\u306e\u5224\u5b9a\u306b\u5f79\u7acb\u3064\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u5f79\u7acb\u3064\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\u304c\u4fe1\u983c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b<strong>\u691c\u8a3c<\/strong>\u304c\u4e0d\u53ef\u6b20\u3060\u3002\u672c\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u9023\u7d9a\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30ab\u30e0\u3092\u6271\u3046\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u7126\u70b9\u3092\u5f53\u3066\u3001\u305d\u306e<strong>\u5185\u7684\u691c\u8a3c<\/strong>\u3068<strong>\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c<\/strong>\u306e\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u304b\u3089\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306a\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u305d\u3057\u3066\u305d\u306e\u89e3\u91c8\u307e\u3067\u3092\u8a73\u3057\u304f\u89e3\u8aac\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u5185\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u3068\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306e\u6982\u8981<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u691c\u8a3c\u306f\u3001\u958b\u767a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u3069\u308c\u307b\u3069\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u3001\u305d\u3057\u3066\u6c4e\u7528\u7684\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u304b\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5185\u7684\u691c\u8a3c<\/strong>\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u958b\u767a\u3055\u308c\u305f<strong>\u540c\u3058\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8<\/strong>\u3001\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u305d\u306e\u30b5\u30d6\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u6027\u80fd\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u5b66\u7fd2\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u904e\u5270\u306b\u9069\u5408\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u304b\uff08<strong>\u904e\u5b66\u7fd2<\/strong>\uff09\u3001\u305d\u3057\u3066\u5076\u7136\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u884c\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3002\u5185\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u306a\u4fe1\u983c\u6027\u3068\u5b89\u5b9a\u6027\u304c\u4fdd\u8a3c\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e00\u65b9\u3001<strong>\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c<\/strong>\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u958b\u767a\u306b\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044<strong>\u72ec\u7acb\u3057\u305f\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8<\/strong>\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u6027\u80fd\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u958b\u767a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u74b0\u5883\u3084\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u7fa4\u3060\u3051\u3067\u306a\u304f\u3001\u7570\u306a\u308b\u96c6\u56e3\u3084\u72b6\u6cc1\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u3082\u540c\u69d8\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\u3092\u767a\u63ee\u3067\u304d\u308b\u304b\u3001\u3064\u307e\u308a<strong>\u6c4e\u7528\u6027<\/strong>\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304b\u3092\u78ba\u304b\u3081\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u6700\u3082\u91cd\u8981\u3060\u3002\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u3092\u30af\u30ea\u30a2\u3057\u3066\u521d\u3081\u3066\u3001\u305d\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u81e8\u5e8a\u5fdc\u7528\u3078\u306e\u9053\u304c\u958b\u304b\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5177\u4f53\u4f8b\u3067\u5b66\u3076\u5185\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u3068\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\uff08R\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u8a08\u7b97\u4f8b\uff09<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u3001\u60a3\u8005\u306e\u5165\u9662\u6642\u306e\u60c5\u5831\u304b\u3089\u9000\u9662\u6642\u306e <strong>HbA1c\u5024\uff08\u9023\u7d9a\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff09<\/strong>\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u4f8b\u306b\u3001\u5185\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u3068\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306e\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306a\u6d41\u308c\u3068\u8a55\u4fa1\u6307\u6a19\u3092\u898b\u3066\u3044\u3053\u3046\u3002R\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3067\u89e3\u8aac\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. \u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3068\u8aad\u307f\u8fbc\u307f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><code>rms<\/code>\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u307e\u3060\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u5834\u5408\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u30b3\u30de\u30f3\u30c9\u3067\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3057\u3066\u307b\u3057\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>R \u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># install.packages(\"rms\")\n# install.packages(\"dplyr\") # \u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u64cd\u4f5c\u306e\u305f\u3081\n# install.packages(\"ggplot2\") # \u53ef\u8996\u5316\u306e\u305f\u3081\nlibrary(rms)\nlibrary(dplyr)\nlibrary(ggplot2)\nset.seed(123) # \u518d\u73fe\u6027\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306e\u30b7\u30fc\u30c9\u8a2d\u5b9a\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. \u30c0\u30df\u30fc\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u751f\u6210<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u3001\u67b6\u7a7a\u306e\u300c\u75c5\u9662A\u300d\u3068\u300c\u75c5\u9662B\u300d\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u751f\u6210\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><code>age<\/code>: \u5e74\u9f62 (\u5171\u5909\u91cf1)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>bmi<\/code>: BMI (\u5171\u5909\u91cf2)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>admission_glucose<\/code>: \u5165\u9662\u6642\u8840\u7cd6\u5024 (\u5171\u5909\u91cf3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>discharge_hba1c<\/code>: \u9000\u9662\u6642HbA1c (\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30ab\u30e0)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>R \u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># \u75c5\u9662A\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff08\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u958b\u767a\u7528\u304a\u3088\u3073\u5185\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u7528\uff09\nn_hospital_A &lt;- 1000\nhospital_A_data &lt;- data.frame(\n    age = round(rnorm(n_hospital_A, mean = 60, sd = 10)),\n    bmi = round(rnorm(n_hospital_A, mean = 25, sd = 3), 1),\n    admission_glucose = round(rnorm(n_hospital_A, mean = 150, sd = 30))\n)\n# \u9000\u9662\u6642HbA1c\u306fage, bmi, admission_glucose\u3068\u4e71\u6570\u3067\u751f\u6210\nhospital_A_data$discharge_hba1c &lt;- round(3.0 + 0.03 * hospital_A_data$age +\n    0.05 * hospital_A_data$bmi +\n    0.01 * hospital_A_data$admission_glucose +\n    rnorm(n_hospital_A, mean = 0, sd = 0.8), 1)\n\n# HbA1c\u306f\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e0a\u3042\u308a\u3048\u305d\u3046\u306a\u5024\u7bc4\u56f2\u306b\u8abf\u6574\nhospital_A_data$discharge_hba1c&#91;hospital_A_data$discharge_hba1c &lt; 4.0] &lt;- 4.0\nhospital_A_data$discharge_hba1c&#91;hospital_A_data$discharge_hba1c &gt; 12.0] &lt;- 12.0\n\n\n# \u75c5\u9662B\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff08\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u7528\uff09\n# \u75c5\u9662A\u3068\u306f\u5c11\u3057\u7570\u306a\u308b\u7279\u6027\u3092\u6301\u3064\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3092\u308f\u305a\u304b\u306b\u305a\u3089\u3059\nset.seed(456) # \u518d\u73fe\u6027\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306e\u30b7\u30fc\u30c9\u8a2d\u5b9a\nn_hospital_B &lt;- 300\nhospital_B_data &lt;- data.frame(\n    age = round(rnorm(n_hospital_B, mean = 62, sd = 10)),\n    bmi = round(rnorm(n_hospital_B, mean = 26, sd = 3), 1),\n    admission_glucose = round(rnorm(n_hospital_B, mean = 160, sd = 30))\n)\n\nhospital_B_data$discharge_hba1c &lt;- round(3.0 + 0.03 * hospital_B_data$age +\n    0.05 * hospital_B_data$bmi +\n    0.01 * hospital_B_data$admission_glucose +\n    rnorm(n_hospital_B, mean = 0, sd = 0.8), 1)\n\nhospital_B_data$discharge_hba1c&#91;hospital_B_data$discharge_hba1c &lt; 4.0] &lt;- 4.0\nhospital_B_data$discharge_hba1c&#91;hospital_B_data$discharge_hba1c &gt; 12.0] &lt;- 12.0\n\n# \u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u69cb\u9020\u78ba\u8a8d\nstr(hospital_A_data)\nstr(hospital_B_data)<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u958b\u767a<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><code>rms<\/code>\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u306e<code>datadist<\/code>\u3068<code>ols<\/code>\u95a2\u6570\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u7dda\u5f62\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u4f5c\u6210\u3059\u308b\u3002<code>datadist<\/code>\u306f\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u306e\u5909\u6570\u5206\u5e03\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3057\u3001\u5f8c\u7d9a\u306e<code>rms<\/code>\u95a2\u6570\u306e\u30d8\u30eb\u30d1\u30fc\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6a5f\u80fd\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>R \u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u958b\u767a\u7528\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff08\u75c5\u9662A\u306e\u5168\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\uff09\ndd &lt;- datadist(hospital_A_data)\noptions(datadist='dd')\n\n# ols (Ordinary Least Squares) \u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u7dda\u5f62\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u958b\u767a\n# \u9000\u9662\u6642HbA1c\u3092age, bmi, admission_glucose\u3067\u4e88\u6e2c\nmodel_hba1c &lt;- ols(discharge_hba1c ~ age + bmi + admission_glucose, data=hospital_A_data)\nprint(model_hba1c)\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. \u5185\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\uff08<code>rms::validate<\/code>\u95a2\u6570\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u691c\u8a3c\uff09<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><code>rms::validate<\/code>\u95a2\u6570\u306f\u3001\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u30ea\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u6027\u80fd\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u3001\u7279\u306b<strong>\u697d\u89b3\u7684\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u3092\u88dc\u6b63\u3057\u305f<\/strong>\u8a55\u4fa1\u6307\u6a19\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3059\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u5b66\u7fd2\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u904e\u5b66\u7fd2\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3092\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u306b\u628a\u63e1\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>R \u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># validate\u95a2\u6570\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u5185\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\n# B=200 \u306f\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u306e\u7e70\u308a\u8fd4\u3057\u56de\u6570\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u306f\u3082\u3063\u3068\u5927\u304d\u3044\u5024\uff08\u4f8b: B=1000\uff09\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\n# \u5b9f\u884c\u306b\u306f\u5c11\u3057\u6642\u9593\u304c\u304b\u304b\u308b\u5834\u5408\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\nset.seed(456) # validate\u95a2\u6570\u306e\u518d\u73fe\u6027\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306e\u30b7\u30fc\u30c9\u8a2d\u5b9a\nvalidation_results_internal &lt;- validate(model_hba1c, method=\"boot\", B=200) # B\u306f\u30c7\u30e2\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u305f\u3081\u5c0f\u3055\u304f\u8a2d\u5b9a\nprint(validation_results_internal)\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5b9f\u884c\u7d50\u679c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>&gt; print(validation_results_internal)\n          index.orig training   test optimism index.corrected   n\nR-square      0.2643   0.2671 0.2615   0.0056          0.2587 200\nMSE           0.6311   0.6292 0.6335  -0.0043          0.6354 200\ng             0.5370   0.5397 0.5356   0.0041          0.5329 200\nIntercept     0.0000   0.0000 0.0485  -0.0485          0.0485 200\nSlope         1.0000   1.0000 0.9933   0.0067          0.9933 200<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5185\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u89e3\u91c8<\/strong>\uff1a<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u691c\u8a3c\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u306b\u8868\u793a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u5404\u6307\u6a19\u306e\u610f\u5473\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. <strong>index.orig<\/strong> (Original Index)<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u610f\u5473<\/strong>: \u5143\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u5168\u4f53\u3067\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u69cb\u7bc9\u30fb\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u305f\u969b\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u5024<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8aac\u660e<\/strong>: \u904e\u5b66\u7fd2\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u300c\u697d\u89b3\u7684\u306a\u300d\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u3002\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u540c\u3058\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u69cb\u7bc9\u3055\u308c\u3001\u540c\u3058\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u8a55\u4fa1\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u6027\u80fd\u3088\u308a\u3082\u826f\u304f\u898b\u7a4d\u3082\u3089\u308c\u304c\u3061\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. <strong>training<\/strong> (Training)<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u610f\u5473<\/strong>: \u5404\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3067\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u69cb\u7bc9\u3057\u305f\u969b\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u5024\u306e\u5e73\u5747<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8aac\u660e<\/strong>: \u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3067\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u69cb\u7bc9\u3057\u3001\u540c\u3058\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3067\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u305f\u5024\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3082\u904e\u5b66\u7fd2\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u53d7\u3051\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. <strong>test<\/strong> (Test)<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u610f\u5473<\/strong>: \u5404\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3067\u69cb\u7bc9\u3057\u305f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u3001\u5143\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u5168\u4f53\u3067\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u305f\u969b\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u5024\u306e\u5e73\u5747<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8aac\u660e<\/strong>: \u3088\u308a\u73fe\u5b9f\u7684\u306a\u6027\u80fd\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u3002\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u306e\u6027\u80fd\u3092\u3088\u308a\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u53cd\u6620\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. <strong>optimism<\/strong> (Optimism)<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u610f\u5473<\/strong>: \u697d\u89b3\u6027\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\uff08\u904e\u5b66\u7fd2\u306e\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8a08\u7b97\u5f0f<\/strong>: <code>training - test<\/code><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8aac\u660e<\/strong>: \u3053\u306e\u5024\u304c\u5927\u304d\u3044\u307b\u3069\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u904e\u5b66\u7fd2\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u306a\u5024\u306f0\u306b\u8fd1\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. <strong>index.corrected<\/strong> (Corrected Index)<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u610f\u5473<\/strong>: \u697d\u89b3\u6027\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u3092\u88dc\u6b63\u3057\u305f\u6307\u6a19\u5024<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8a08\u7b97\u5f0f<\/strong>: <code>index.orig - optimism<\/code><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8aac\u660e<\/strong>: \u904e\u5b66\u7fd2\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u53d6\u308a\u9664\u3044\u305f\u3001\u3088\u308a\u73fe\u5b9f\u7684\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u6027\u80fd\u306e\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u89e3\u91c8\u4f8b<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>R-square \u306b\u95a2\u3057\u3066<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>index.orig<\/strong>: 0.2643 &#8211; \u5143\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u306e\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4fc2\u6570<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>training<\/strong>: 0.2671 &#8211; \u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3067\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4fc2\u6570<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>test<\/strong>: 0.2615 &#8211; \u3088\u308a\u73fe\u5b9f\u7684\u306a\u6027\u80fd\u63a8\u5b9a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>optimism<\/strong>: 0.0056 &#8211; \u697d\u89b3\u6027\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\uff08\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>index.corrected<\/strong>: 0.2587 &#8211; \u88dc\u6b63\u5f8c\u306e\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4fc2\u6570<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u697d\u89b3\u6027\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\uff080.0056\uff09\u306f\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u5c0f\u3055\u304f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u904e\u5b66\u7fd2\u306f\u8efd\u5fae\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u793a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. \u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\uff1a\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3068\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u3067\u306f\u3001\u958b\u767a\u306b\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u300c\u75c5\u9662B\u300d\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u6027\u80fd\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u3002\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u6b63\u78ba\u3055\uff08<strong>\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6<\/strong>\uff09\u3068\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3068\u5b9f\u6e2c\u5024\u306e\u305a\u308c\uff08<strong>\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3<\/strong>\uff09\u306e\u4e21\u9762\u304b\u3089\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>R \u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># \u75c5\u9662B\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u4e88\u6e2c\npredictions_external &lt;- predict(model_hba1c, newdata = hospital_B_data)\n\n# \u5b9f\u6e2c\u5024\nactual_hba1c_external &lt;- hospital_B_data$discharge_hba1c\n\n### \u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6 \u306e\u8a55\u4fa1 ###\n# 1. RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) \u306e\u8a08\u7b97\nrmse_external &lt;- sqrt(mean((actual_hba1c_external - predictions_external)^2))\ncat(\"\\n--- \u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1 ---\\n\")\ncat(\"\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c RMSE:\", rmse_external, \"\\n\")\n\n# 2. R2 (\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4fc2\u6570) \u306e\u8a08\u7b97 - \u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u7528\u306e\u4fee\u6b63\u7248\n# \u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u3067\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u5b9f\u6e2c\u5024\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u3092\u57fa\u6e96\u306b\u3059\u308b\n# TSS (Total Sum of Squares) - \u5b9f\u6e2c\u5024\u306e\u5206\u6563\ntss_external &lt;- sum((actual_hba1c_external - mean(actual_hba1c_external))^2)\n# RSS (Residual Sum of Squares) - \u4e88\u6e2c\u8aa4\u5dee\u306e\u4e8c\u4e57\u548c\nrss_external &lt;- sum((actual_hba1c_external - predictions_external)^2)\n\n# R\u00b2\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\nr_squared_external &lt;- 1 - (rss_external \/ tss_external)\ncat(\"\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c R2:\", r_squared_external, \"\\n\")\n\n### \u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3 (Calibration) \u306e\u8a55\u4fa1 ###\n# \u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3068\u5b9f\u6e2c\u5024\u304c\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u4e00\u81f4\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002\n# \u9023\u7d9a\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30ab\u30e0\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3068\u5b9f\u6e2c\u5024\u306e\u9593\u306e\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u306a\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\uff08\u305a\u308c\uff09\u304c\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u3002\n# 1. Calibration-in-the-large \u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\uff08\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u3068\u5b9f\u6e2c\u5024\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u6bd4\u8f03\uff09\nmean_predicted &lt;- mean(predictions_external)\nmean_actual &lt;- mean(actual_hba1c_external)\ncat(\"\\n--- \u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1 ---\\n\")\ncat(\"\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u5b9f\u6e2cHbA1c\u306e\u5e73\u5747:\", mean_actual, \"\\n\")\ncat(\"\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u4e88\u6e2cHbA1c\u306e\u5e73\u5747:\", mean_predicted, \"\\n\")\ncat(\"\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u5dee (\u5b9f\u6e2c - \u4e88\u6e2c):\", mean_actual - mean_predicted, \"\\n\")\n# \u5dee\u304c\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u6709\u610f\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u3092\u691c\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u3067\u304d\u308b (\u4f8b: t.test)\n# t.test(actual_hba1c_external, predictions_external, paired = FALSE) # \u5bfe\u5fdc\u306e\u306a\u3044t\u691c\u5b9a\n\n# 2. \u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8\uff08\u8996\u899a\u7684\u8a55\u4fa1\u3068\u56de\u5e30\u5206\u6790\u306b\u3088\u308b\u5b9a\u91cf\u8a55\u4fa1\uff09\n# \u5b9f\u6e2c\u5024\u3092\u76ee\u7684\u5909\u6570\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u5909\u6570\u3068\u3059\u308b\u7dda\u5f62\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u69cb\u7bc9\n# \u7406\u60f3\u7684\u306a\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306f\u3001\u5207\u7247\u304c0\u3067\u50be\u304d\u304c1\u306e\u76f4\u7dda (y = x) \u3060\u3002\ncalibration_model_external &lt;- lm(actual_hba1c_external ~ predictions_external)\ncat(\"\\n--- \u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8981\u7d04 ---\\n\")\nsummary(calibration_model_external)\n# \u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8\u306e\u4f5c\u6210\nplot_data_calibration &lt;- data.frame(\n    Actual = actual_hba1c_external,\n    Predicted = predictions_external\n)\nggplot(plot_data_calibration, aes(x = Predicted, y = Actual)) +\n    geom_point(alpha = 0.6) +\n    geom_smooth(method = \"lm\", se = FALSE, color = \"blue\", linetype = \"solid\") + # \u56de\u5e30\u76f4\u7dda (\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3)\n    geom_abline(intercept = 0, slope = 1, linetype = \"dashed\", color = \"red\") + # \u7406\u60f3\u7dda (y=x)\n    labs(\n        title = \"\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c: HbA1c \u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8 (\u75c5\u9662B)\",\n        x = \"\u4e88\u6e2c HbA1c\",\n        y = \"\u5b9f\u6e2c HbA1c\"\n    ) +\n    theme_minimal() +\n    coord_equal(ratio = 1) # x\u8ef8\u3068y\u8ef8\u306e\u30b9\u30b1\u30fc\u30eb\u3092\u5408\u308f\u305b\u308b<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5b9f\u884c\u7d50\u679c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>&gt; cat(\"\\n--- \u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1 ---\\n\")\n--- \u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1 ---\ncat(\"\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c RMSE:\", rmse_external, \"\\n\")\n&gt; cat(\"\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c RMSE:\", rmse_external, \"\\n\")\n\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c RMSE: 0.7457927 \n&gt; cat(\"\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c R2:\", r_squared_external, \"\\n\")\n\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c R2: 0.2196644 \n\n&gt; cat(\"\\n--- \u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1 ---\\n\")\n--- \u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1 ---\n&gt; cat(\"\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u5b9f\u6e2cHbA1c\u306e\u5e73\u5747:\", mean_actual, \"\\n\")\n\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u5b9f\u6e2cHbA1c\u306e\u5e73\u5747: 7.861 \n&gt; cat(\"\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u4e88\u6e2cHbA1c\u306e\u5e73\u5747:\", mean_predicted, \"\\n\")\n\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u4e88\u6e2cHbA1c\u306e\u5e73\u5747: 7.789605 \n&gt; cat(\"\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u5dee (\u5b9f\u6e2c - \u4e88\u6e2c):\", mean_actual - mean_predicted, \"\\n\")\n\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u5dee (\u5b9f\u6e2c - \u4e88\u6e2c): 0.07139512 \n\n&gt; cat(\"\\n--- \u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8981\u7d04 ---\\n\")\n--- \u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8981\u7d04 ---\n&gt; summary(calibration_model_external)\n\nCall:\nlm(formula = actual_hba1c_external ~ predictions_external)\n\nResiduals:\n     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max \n-1.67026 -0.51287  0.00196  0.52809  2.24725 \n\nCoefficients:\n                     Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(&gt;|t|)    \n(Intercept)           1.15231    0.70667   1.631    0.104    \npredictions_external  0.86124    0.09055   9.511   &lt;2e-16 ***\n---\nSignif. codes:  0 \u2018***\u2019 0.001 \u2018**\u2019 0.01 \u2018*\u2019 0.05 \u2018.\u2019 0.1 \u2018 \u2019 1\n\nResidual standard error: 0.7419 on 298 degrees of freedom\nMultiple R-squared:  0.2329,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.2303 \nF-statistic: 90.46 on 1 and 298 DF,  p-value: &lt; 2.2e-16\n\n&gt; <\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u89e3\u91c8\uff1a<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>RMSE<\/strong>: \u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u306a\u8aa4\u5dee\u3092\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30ab\u30e0\u3068\u540c\u3058\u5358\u4f4d\u3067\u793a\u3059\u3002\u5024\u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u307b\u3069\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3059\u308b\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u826f\u3057\u60aa\u3057\u3092\u5224\u65ad\u3059\u308b\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u57fa\u6e96\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>R2<\/strong>: \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30ab\u30e0\u306e\u5909\u52d5\u3092\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u8aac\u660e\u3067\u304d\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3092\u793a\u3059\u30021\u306b\u8fd1\u3044\u307b\u3069\u8aac\u660e\u529b\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5185\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306eR-square \u306e<code>index.corrected<\/code>\u3068\u3001\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306e<code>R2<\/code>\u304c\u5927\u304d\u304f\u4e56\u96e2\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u91cd\u8981\u3060\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001RMSE\u3082\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u3001\u4e21\u8005\u3067\u5927\u304d\u304f\u7570\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u671b\u307e\u3057\u3044\uff08\u5185\u90e8\u691c\u8a3c\u7d50\u679c\u306e MSE \u306e index.corrected \u306e\u5e73\u65b9\u6839\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\uff09\u3002\u3082\u3057\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u3067\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u304c\u8457\u3057\u304f\u60aa\u5316\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u6c4e\u7528\u6027\u306b\u554f\u984c\u304c\u3042\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u5b9f\u6e2cHbA1c\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u3068\u4e88\u6e2cHbA1c\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03\u3059\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u304c\u8fd1\u3044\u307b\u3069\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u5168\u4f53\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u504f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3059\uff08\u7d04 0.07\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>calibration_model_external<\/code>\u306e<code>summary()<\/code>\u51fa\u529b\u3067\u3001<strong>\u5207\u7247 (Intercept) \u306e\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u3068P\u5024<\/strong>\u306b\u6ce8\u76ee\u3059\u308b\u3002P\u5024\u304c0.05\u672a\u6e80\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u5207\u7247\u304c0\u3068\u6709\u610f\u306b\u7570\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3057\u3001\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u904e\u5927\u8a55\u4fa1\u307e\u305f\u306f\u904e\u5c0f\u8a55\u4fa1\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u5506\u3059\u308b\uff08Intercept = 1.15, P=0.104 \u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u5927\u304d\u304f\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u5916\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u308f\u3051\u3067\u3082\u306a\u3044\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Clinical_predictive_model_int_ext_calib_plot-1024x768.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4179\" srcset=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Clinical_predictive_model_int_ext_calib_plot-1024x768.png 1024w, https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Clinical_predictive_model_int_ext_calib_plot-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Clinical_predictive_model_int_ext_calib_plot-768x576.png 768w, https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Clinical_predictive_model_int_ext_calib_plot-1536x1152.png 1536w, https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Clinical_predictive_model_int_ext_calib_plot-2048x1536.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u8d64\u306e\u7834\u7dda (y=x)<\/strong>: \u7406\u60f3\u7684\u306a\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3068\u5b9f\u6e2c\u5024\u304c\u5b8c\u5168\u306b\u4e00\u81f4\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u72b6\u614b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u9752\u306e\u5b9f\u7dda (\u56de\u5e30\u76f4\u7dda)<\/strong>: \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u7dda\u304c\u8d64\u306e\u7834\u7dda\u306b\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u8fd1\u3044\u304b\u3067\u3001\u8996\u899a\u7684\u306b\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u826f\u3057\u60aa\u3057\u3092\u5224\u65ad\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>calibration_model_external<\/code>\u306e<code>summary()<\/code>\u51fa\u529b\u3067\u3001<code>predictions_external<\/code>\uff08\u3064\u307e\u308a\u50be\u304d\uff09\u306e<strong>\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u3068P\u5024<\/strong>\u306b\u3082\u6ce8\u76ee\u3059\u308b\u3002P\u5024\u304c0.05\u672a\u6e80\u3067\u50be\u304d\u304c1\u3068\u7570\u306a\u308b\u5834\u5408\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u6975\u7aef\u3059\u304e\u308b\u304b\u3001\u63a7\u3048\u3081\u3059\u304e\u308b\u50be\u5411\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3059\uff08predictions_external = 0.86, P &lt; 0.001 \u3067\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u63a7\u3048\u3081\u3059\u304e\u308b\u50be\u5411\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7dcf\u5408\u7684\u306a\u5224\u65ad<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u81e8\u5e8a\u73fe\u5834\u3067\u6709\u7528\u3067\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u304c\u9ad8\u304f\u3001\u304b\u3064\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u304c\u826f\u597d\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u6c42\u3081\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3002\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u304c\u9ad8\u304f\u3066\u3082\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u304c\u60aa\u3051\u308c\u3070\u3001\u500b\u3005\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u304c\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u306b\u305a\u308c\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3044\u3001\u81e8\u5e8a\u5224\u65ad\u3092\u8aa4\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u4f8b\u3067\u306f\u3001<code>rms::validate<\/code>\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u5185\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u304c\u5358\u306a\u308b\u30db\u30fc\u30eb\u30c9\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u6cd5\u3088\u308a\u3082\u5805\u7262\u306b\u884c\u308f\u308c\u3001\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u306b\u3088\u308b\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u88dc\u6b63\u304c\u65bd\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3001\u3088\u308a\u4fe1\u983c\u6027\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u5185\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u6307\u6a19\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3002\u305d\u3057\u3066\u3001\u72ec\u7acb\u3057\u305f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u3067\u306e\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u3092\u884c\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u771f\u306e\u6c4e\u7528\u6027\uff08\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3068\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u4e21\u9762\uff09\u304c\u78ba\u8a8d\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"biost-3219511650\" class=\"biost- biost-entity-placement\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/kmhl\">\uff1e\uff1e\u3082\u3046\u7d71\u8a08\u3067\u60a9\u3080\u306e\u306f\u7d42\u308f\u308a\u306b\u3057\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304b\uff1f\u00a0<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\r\n<a href=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/kmhl\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2794 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/bn_r_03.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"327\" \/><\/a>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000; font-size: 20px;\"><strong><span class=\"marker2\">\u21911\u4e07\u4eba\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306e\u533b\u7642\u5f93\u4e8b\u8005\u304c\u8cfc\u8aad\u4e2d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/div><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u307e\u3068\u3081<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u958b\u767a\u3068\u540c\u3058\u304f\u3089\u3044\u3001\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306b<strong>\u691c\u8a3c\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9<\/strong>\u304c\u91cd\u8981\u3060\u3002\u7279\u306b\u9023\u7d9a\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30ab\u30e0\u3092\u6271\u3046\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u7cbe\u5ea6\u304c\u60a3\u8005\u306e\u5065\u5eb7\u306b\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u614e\u91cd\u306a\u8a55\u4fa1\u304c\u6c42\u3081\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5185\u7684\u691c\u8a3c<\/strong>\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u904e\u5b66\u7fd2\u3092\u8d77\u3053\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3001\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u5b89\u5b9a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3092\u5185\u90e8\u3067\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u300c\u57fa\u790e\u4f53\u529b\u300d\u3092\u6e2c\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u3001<strong>\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c<\/strong>\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u958b\u767a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u74b0\u5883\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u3066\u3001\u69d8\u3005\u306a\u81e8\u5e8a\u73fe\u5834\u3067\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u901a\u7528\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3092\u8a66\u3059\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u300c\u5b9f\u6226\u80fd\u529b\u300d\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5916\u7684\u691c\u8a3c\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u6b63\u78ba\u3055\u3092\u793a\u3059\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\uff08RMSE\u3084R2\u306a\u3069\uff09\u3060\u3051\u3067\u306a\u304f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3068\u5b9f\u6e2c\u5024\u304c\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u4e00\u81f4\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3092\u793a\u3059<strong>\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3<\/strong>\uff08\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u306e\u6bd4\u8f03\u3084\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8\u306e\u5207\u7247\u30fb\u50be\u304d\uff09\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\u3082\u4e0d\u53ef\u6b20\u3060\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u691c\u8a3c\u3092\u901a\u3058\u3066\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u9650\u754c\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3057\u3001\u305d\u306e\u4fe1\u983c\u6027\u3092\u5ba2\u89b3\u7684\u306b\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3001\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u5b89\u5168\u304b\u3064\u6709\u52b9\u306b\u533b\u7642\u73fe\u5834\u306b\u5c0e\u5165\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u4e0d\u53ef\u6b20\u306a\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u533b\u7642\u73fe\u5834\u3067\u60a3\u8005\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u5f37\u529b\u306a\u30c4\u30fc\u30eb\u3060\u3002\u7279\u306b\u8840\u5727\u3084\u8840\u7cd6\u5024\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u9023\u7d9a\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30ab\u30e0\u3068\u3059\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u75c5\u72b6\u306e\u9032\u884c\u4e88\u6e2c\u3084\u6cbb\u7642\u52b9\u679c\u306e\u5224\u5b9a\u306b\u5f79\u7acb\u3064\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u5f79\u7acb\u3064\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4179,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"swell_btn_cv_data":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[151],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-151"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Clinical_predictive_model_int_ext_calib_plot.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4147","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4147"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4147\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4182,"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4147\/revisions\/4182"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4179"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}