{"id":4190,"date":"2025-07-10T23:43:23","date_gmt":"2025-07-10T14:43:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/?p=4190"},"modified":"2025-07-10T23:43:25","modified_gmt":"2025-07-10T14:43:25","slug":"clinical-prediction-model-performance-comparison-optimal-evaluation-methods","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/entry\/clinical-prediction-model-performance-comparison-optimal-evaluation-methods\/","title":{"rendered":"\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u6027\u80fd\u6bd4\u8f03\uff1a\u6700\u9069\u306a\u8a55\u4fa1\u65b9\u6cd5\u3068\u306f\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>\u81e8\u5e8a\u73fe\u5834\u3067\u307e\u3059\u307e\u3059\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3092\u5897\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b<strong>\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb<\/strong>\u3002\u75c5\u6c17\u306e\u8a3a\u65ad\u3001\u4e88\u5f8c\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u3001\u6cbb\u7642\u52b9\u679c\u306e\u63a8\u5b9a\u306a\u3069\u3001\u591a\u5c90\u306b\u308f\u305f\u308b\u5834\u9762\u3067\u6d3b\u7528\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u8907\u6570\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u5b58\u5728\u3059\u308b\u5834\u5408\u3001\u3069\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u6700\u3082\u512a\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3001\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5224\u65ad\u3059\u308c\u3070\u3088\u3044\u306e\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u672c\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u6027\u80fd\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u4e3b\u8981\u306a\u65b9\u6cd5\u3068\u3001\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u306e\u9069\u5207\u306a\u4f7f\u3044\u5206\u3051\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001\u308f\u304b\u308a\u3084\u3059\u304f\u89e3\u8aac\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u6027\u80fd\u6bd4\u8f03\u65b9\u6cd5\u6982\u8981<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u6027\u80fd\u6bd4\u8f03\u306f\u3001\u5358\u306b\u300c\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u5f53\u305f\u3063\u305f\u304b\u5916\u308c\u305f\u304b\u300d\u3060\u3051\u3067\u306a\u304f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u306b\u3069\u308c\u307b\u3069\u6709\u7528\u3067\u3042\u308b\u304b\u3092\u591a\u89d2\u7684\u306b\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u3060\u3002\u4e3b\u306a\u6bd4\u8f03\u65b9\u6cd5\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e3\u3064\u306e\u5074\u9762\u304c\u6319\u3052\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u8b58\u5225\u80fd (Discrimination)<\/strong>\uff1a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u3001\u7d50\u679c\uff08\u75c5\u6c17\u306e\u6709\u7121\u3001\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u767a\u751f\u306e\u6709\u7121\u306a\u3069\uff09\u3092\u6301\u3064\u4eba\u3068\u6301\u305f\u306a\u3044\u4eba\u3092\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u533a\u5225\u3067\u304d\u308b\u304b\u3092\u793a\u3059\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8f03\u6b63\u80fd (Calibration)<\/strong>\uff1a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u767a\u751f\u78ba\u7387\u3068\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u4e00\u81f4\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3092\u793a\u3059\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u6709\u7528\u6027 (Clinical Utility)<\/strong>\uff1a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u3001\u60a3\u8005\u306e\u30b1\u30a2\u3084\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u306b\u3069\u308c\u307b\u3069\u8ca2\u732e\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3092\u793a\u3059\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u5074\u9762\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u3055\u307e\u3056\u307e\u306a\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u624b\u6cd5\u3084\u6307\u6a19\u304c\u7528\u3044\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u306e\u89e3\u8aac<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. \u8b58\u5225\u80fd\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8b58\u5225\u80fd\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u6700\u3082\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u6307\u6a19\u306f\u3001<strong>ROC\u66f2\u7dda (Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve)<\/strong> \u3068\u305d\u306e\u4e0b\u306e\u9762\u7a4d\u3067\u3042\u308b<strong>AUC (Area Under the Curve)<\/strong> \u3060\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>ROC\u66f2\u7dda<\/strong>\uff1a\u8a3a\u65ad\u95be\u5024\u3092\u5909\u5316\u3055\u305b\u305f\u3068\u304d\u306e\u771f\u967d\u6027\u7387\uff08\u611f\u5ea6\uff09\u3068\u507d\u967d\u6027\u7387\uff081-\u7279\u7570\u5ea6\uff09\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u3092\u56f3\u793a\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3002\u5de6\u4e0a\u9685\u306b\u8fd1\u3065\u304f\u307b\u3069\u3001\u8b58\u5225\u80fd\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AUC<\/strong>\uff1aROC\u66f2\u7dda\u306e\u4e0b\u306e\u9762\u7a4d\u3067\u30010\u304b\u30891\u307e\u3067\u306e\u5024\u3092\u53d6\u308b\u30021\u306b\u8fd1\u3044\u307b\u3069\u8b58\u5225\u80fd\u304c\u9ad8\u304f\u30010.5\u306f\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u30e0\u306a\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u5909\u308f\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3059\u308b\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306b\u3001AUC\u304c0.7\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u8a31\u5bb9\u3067\u304d\u308b\u8b58\u5225\u80fd\u30010.8\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u826f\u597d\u306a\u8b58\u5225\u80fd\u3068\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8907\u6570\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03\u3059\u308b\u5834\u5408\u3001\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306eAUC\u5024\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3001\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u6709\u610f\u5dee\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304b\u3092\u691c\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u8b58\u5225\u80fd\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u7279\u5b9a\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. \u8f03\u6b63\u80fd\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8f03\u6b63\u80fd\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u89b3\u6e2c\u5024\u3068\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u4e00\u81f4\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002\u8b58\u5225\u80fd\u304c\u9ad8\u304f\u3066\u3082\u8f03\u6b63\u80fd\u304c\u4f4e\u3044\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u306a\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u8aa4\u3063\u305f\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3059\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8f03\u6b63\u80fd\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u4e3b\u306a\u65b9\u6cd5\u306b\u306f\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u3082\u306e\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u8f03\u6b63\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8 (Calibration Plot)<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e88\u6e2c\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u533a\u9593\u3054\u3068\u306b\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3068\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u767a\u751f\u7387\u3092\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3002\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u306b\u306f\u3001\u70b9\u304c45\u5ea6\u7dda\uff08\u5bfe\u89d2\u7dda\uff09\u4e0a\u306b\u4e26\u3076\u3053\u3068\u304c\u671b\u307e\u3057\u3044\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Hosmer-Lemeshow\u691c\u5b9a<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e88\u6e2c\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u3044\u304f\u3064\u304b\u306e\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u306b\u5206\u3051\u3001\u5404\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u6570\u3068\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u6570\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03\u3059\u308b\u9069\u5408\u5ea6\u691c\u5b9a\u3060\u3002p\u5024\u304c0.05\u3088\u308a\u5927\u304d\u3044\u5834\u5408\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8f03\u6b63\u80fd\u306f\u826f\u597d\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u5224\u65ad\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30b5\u30a4\u30ba\u306b\u5f71\u97ff\u3055\u308c\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6b20\u70b9\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>E-statistic (Expected-Observed statistic)<\/strong> \u3084 <strong>Brier\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2<\/strong>\u306a\u3069\u3082\u8f03\u6b63\u80fd\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\u306b\u7528\u3044\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. \u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u6709\u7528\u6027\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8b58\u5225\u80fd\u3084\u8f03\u6b63\u80fd\u304c\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306a\u6027\u80fd\u3092\u793a\u3059\u306e\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3001\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u6709\u7528\u6027\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u60a3\u8005\u306e\u30b1\u30a2\u3084\u533b\u7642\u7d4c\u6e08\u306b\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u8ca2\u732e\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u66f2\u7dda\u5206\u6790 (Decision Curve Analysis; DCA)<\/strong>\uff1a\u7570\u306a\u308b\u95be\u5024\u78ba\u7387\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\u7d14\u7c8b\u306a\u5229\u76ca\uff08Net Benefit\uff09\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u624b\u6cd5\u3060\u3002\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3088\u308b\u771f\u306e\u967d\u6027\u3068\u507d\u306e\u967d\u6027\u306e\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u3001\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u306a\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u306b\u8cc7\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u3092\u8996\u899a\u7684\u306b\u5224\u65ad\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI)<\/strong>\uff1a\u65e2\u5b58\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u3066\u3001\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u60a3\u8005\u306e\u5206\u985e\uff08\u4f4e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\/\u9ad8\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u306a\u3069\uff09\u3092\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u9069\u5207\u306b\u518d\u5206\u985e\u3067\u304d\u305f\u304b\u3092\u793a\u3059\u6307\u6a19\u3060\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI)<\/strong>\uff1a\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u65e2\u5b58\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3088\u308a\u3082\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u4e88\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\u3092\u5411\u4e0a\u3055\u305b\u305f\u304b\u3092\u793a\u3059\u6307\u6a19\u3060\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u81e8\u5e8a\u73fe\u5834\u3067\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5f79\u7acb\u3064\u304b\u3092\u3088\u308a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306b\u793a\u3059\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"biost-2403596132\" class=\"biost- biost-entity-placement\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/kmhl\">\uff1e\uff1e\u3082\u3046\u7d71\u8a08\u3067\u60a9\u3080\u306e\u306f\u7d42\u308f\u308a\u306b\u3057\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304b\uff1f\u00a0<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\r\n<a href=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/kmhl\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2794 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/bn_r_03.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"327\" \/><\/a>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000; font-size: 20px;\"><strong><span class=\"marker2\">\u21911\u4e07\u4eba\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306e\u533b\u7642\u5f93\u4e8b\u8005\u304c\u8cfc\u8aad\u4e2d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/div><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6027\u80fd\u6bd4\u8f03\u6307\u6a19\u306e\u4f7f\u3044\u5206\u3051<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3069\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u3092\u91cd\u8996\u3059\u308b\u304b\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u76ee\u7684\u3068\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u306a\u6587\u8108\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u7570\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul 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