{"id":4233,"date":"2025-07-12T22:27:31","date_gmt":"2025-07-12T13:27:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/?p=4233"},"modified":"2025-07-12T22:27:32","modified_gmt":"2025-07-12T13:27:32","slug":"prior-vs-posterior-grasping-the-essentials-of-bayesian-statistics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/entry\/prior-vs-posterior-grasping-the-essentials-of-bayesian-statistics\/","title":{"rendered":"\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u306e\u6838\u5fc3\uff1a\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u300c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304b\u3089\u4f55\u304b\u3092\u5b66\u3076\u300d\u3068\u304d\u3001\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u306f\u5e38\u306b\u4f55\u3089\u304b\u306e\u300c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u300d\u3092\u6301\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u300c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u300d\u3092\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u3066\u66f4\u65b0\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3001\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u4eba\u9593\u3089\u3057\u3044\u601d\u8003\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u3092\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u306b\u8868\u73fe\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3002\u4eca\u56de\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3068\u306a\u308b\u300c\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u300d\u3068\u300c\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u300d\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001\u5206\u304b\u308a\u3084\u3059\u3044\u6bd4\u55a9\u3092\u4ea4\u3048\u306a\u304c\u3089\u89e3\u8aac\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u306e\u6982\u7565<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u307e\u305a\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u304c\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u3082\u306e\u304b\u3001\u7c21\u5358\u306b\u898b\u3066\u3044\u3053\u3046\u3002\u5f93\u6765\u306e\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\uff08\u983b\u5ea6\u8ad6\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\uff09\u304c\u300c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u4e0e\u3048\u3089\u308c\u305f\u3068\u304d\u3001\u305d\u308c\u304c\u3069\u306e\u304f\u3089\u3044\u73cd\u3057\u3044\u304b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8996\u70b9\u306b\u7acb\u3064\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u3044\u306e\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u306f\u300c\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u304c\u6301\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u77e5\u8b58\uff08\u4e8b\u524d\u77e5\u8b58\uff09\u3092\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u66f4\u65b0\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304f\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8003\u3048\u65b9\u3092\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u6982\u7565<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b\u4e0a\u3067\u3001\u6700\u3082\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u6982\u5ff5\u304c\u300c\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u300d\u3068\u300c\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u300d\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\uff08Prior Distribution\uff09<\/strong>: <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-swl-deep-01-color\">\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u898b\u308b\u300c\u524d\u300d\u306b\u3001\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u304c\u6301\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u300c\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u3042\u308a\u65b9\u300d\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3084\u77e5\u8b58<\/mark>\u3092\u8868\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u7d4c\u9a13\u3001\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u306e\u610f\u898b\u3001\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u5358\u306a\u308b\u76f4\u611f\u306a\u3069\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\uff08Posterior Distribution\uff09<\/strong>: \u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u300c\u898b\u305f\u5f8c\u300d\u306b\u3001\u305d\u306e<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-swl-deep-01-color\">\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u66f4\u65b0\u3055\u308c\u305f\u300c\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u3042\u308a\u65b9\u300d\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3084\u77e5\u8b58<\/mark>\u3092\u8868\u3059\u3002\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u306b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304b\u3089\u306e\u60c5\u5831\u304c\u52a0\u308f\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u3088\u308a\u6d17\u7df4\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3001\u78ba\u4fe1\u5ea6\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u5206\u5e03\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"biost-1786113952\" class=\"biost- biost-entity-placement\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/kmhl\">\uff1e\uff1e\u3082\u3046\u7d71\u8a08\u3067\u60a9\u3080\u306e\u306f\u7d42\u308f\u308a\u306b\u3057\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304b\uff1f\u00a0<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\r\n<a href=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/kmhl\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2794 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/bn_r_03.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"327\" \/><\/a>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000; font-size: 20px;\"><strong><span class=\"marker2\">\u21911\u4e07\u4eba\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306e\u533b\u7642\u5f93\u4e8b\u8005\u304c\u8cfc\u8aad\u4e2d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/div><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u30a4\u30e1\u30fc\u30b8<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\uff1a\u5b9d\u63a2\u3057\u524d\u306e\u300c\u6f20\u7136\u3068\u3057\u305f\u671f\u5f85\u300d<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3042\u306a\u305f\u306f\u5b9d\u63a2\u3057\u306b\u51fa\u304b\u3051\u308b\u3002\u307e\u3060\u5b9d\u306e\u5730\u56f3\u3092\u898b\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u6bb5\u968e\u3067\u3001\u300c\u3053\u306e\u5cf6\u306b\u306f\u5b9d\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3089\u3057\u3044\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046<strong>\u6f20\u7136\u3068\u3057\u305f\u60c5\u5831\u3084\u671f\u5f85<\/strong>\u3092\u6301\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3002\u3082\u3057\u304b\u3057\u305f\u3089\u3001\u300c\u3053\u306e\u5cf6\u306e\u3069\u3053\u304b\u306b\u96a0\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6f20\u7136\u3068\u3057\u305f\u8003\u3048\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3057\u3001\u300c\u6614\u306e\u5642\u3067\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u6d1e\u7a9f\u306e\u5965\u306b\u3042\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306a\u63a8\u6e2c\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3053\u308c\u304c<strong>\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03<\/strong>\u3060\u3002\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff08\u5b9d\u306e\u5730\u56f3\u3084\u76ee\u6483\u60c5\u5831\uff09\u3092\u5f97\u308b\u524d\u306b\u3001\u5b9d\u306e\u5834\u6240\uff08\u77e5\u308a\u305f\u3044\u771f\u5b9f\uff09\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u6301\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3001\u3042\u306a\u305f\u306e\u6700\u521d\u306e\u300c\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u300d\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\uff1a\u5730\u56f3\u3092\u624b\u306b\u5165\u308c\u3066\u78ba\u4fe1\u306b\u5909\u308f\u308b\u300c\u671f\u5f85\u300d<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3044\u3088\u3044\u3088\u5b9d\u306e\u5730\u56f3\u3092\u624b\u306b\u5165\u308c\u305f\uff01\u305d\u3053\u306b\u306f\u300c\u53e4\u3044\u5927\u6728\u306e\u6839\u5143\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30d2\u30f3\u30c8\u304c\u66f8\u304b\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3042\u306a\u305f\u306f\u6f20\u7136\u3068\u3057\u305f\u671f\u5f85\u304b\u3089\u4e00\u8ee2\u3057\u3066\u3001\u300c\u5b9d\u306f\u5927\u6728\u306e\u6839\u5143\u306b\u3042\u308b\uff01\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046<strong>\u5f37\u3044\u78ba\u4fe1<\/strong>\u3092\u5f97\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u3053\u308c\u304c<strong>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03<\/strong>\u3060\u3002\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff08\u5b9d\u306e\u5730\u56f3\uff09\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u3042\u306a\u305f\u306e\u5b9d\u306e\u5834\u6240\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u300c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u300d\u304c\u66f4\u65b0\u3055\u308c\u3001\u3088\u308a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306a\u5834\u6240\u3092\u6307\u3057\u793a\u3059\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u72b6\u614b\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u3067\u306f\u3001<strong>\u300c\u6f20\u7136\u3068\u3057\u305f\u671f\u5f85\uff08\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u300d\u306b\u300c\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306a\u60c5\u5831\uff08\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff09\u300d\u304c\u52a0\u308f\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u300c\u78ba\u4fe1\uff08\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u300d\u3078\u3068\u5909\u5316\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304f\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9<\/strong>\u3092\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u306b\u8a18\u8ff0\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5177\u4f53\u4f8b\u3068\u7c21\u5358\u306a R \u3067\u306e\u53ef\u8996\u5316<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4f8b\uff1a\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u85ac\u306e\u52b9\u679c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3042\u308b\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u85ac\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8003\u3048\u3066\u307f\u3088\u3046\u3002\u3042\u306a\u305f\u306f\u85ac\u5b66\u306e\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u3053\u308c\u307e\u3067\u306e\u7d4c\u9a13\u304b\u3089\u300c\u3053\u306e\u7a2e\u985e\u306e\u85ac\u306f\u3001\u3060\u3044\u305f\u304430%\u304b\u308970%\u304f\u3089\u3044\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u306b\u52b9\u679c\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u3044\uff08\u5e73\u5747 0.5 \u3067\u5e45\u304c\u3042\u308b\uff09\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046<strong>\u4e8b\u524d\u77e5\u8b58<\/strong>\u3092\u6301\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3068\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u85ac\u306e\u6709\u52b9\u6027\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u3042\u306a\u305f\u306e<strong>\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03<\/strong>\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u3067\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u3053\u306e\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u85ac\u309210\u4eba\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u306b\u6295\u4e0e\u3057\u30018\u4eba\u306b\u52b9\u679c\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3044\u3046<strong>\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf<\/strong>\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3068\u3042\u306a\u305f\u306e\u4e8b\u524d\u77e5\u8b58\u3092\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u85ac\u306e\u672c\u5f53\u306e\u6709\u52b9\u6027\u304c\u3069\u306e\u304f\u3089\u3044\u306a\u306e\u304b\u3001\u3088\u308a\u6b63\u78ba\u306a\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u5f97\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">R \u3067\u306e\u7c21\u5358\u306a\u53ef\u8996\u5316<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u3001\u67b6\u7a7a\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u3001\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u304c\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5909\u5316\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3092R\u3067\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3057\u3001\u53ef\u8996\u5316\u3057\u3066\u307f\u3088\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>R \u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># \u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u30e9\u30a4\u30d6\u30e9\u30ea\u3092\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9 (\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u5834\u5408\u306f install.packages(\"ggplot2\") \u3067\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb)\nlibrary(ggplot2)\n\n# \u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u8a2d\u5b9a\n# \u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf (\u30d9\u30fc\u30bf\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u4f7f\u7528)\n# \u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u3001\u4e8b\u524d\u77e5\u8b58\u3068\u3057\u3066\u300c\u52b9\u679c\u304c\u3042\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u4e2d\u592e\u5024\u304c0.5\u304f\u3089\u3044\u3001\u5e45\u304c\u305d\u3053\u305d\u3053\u3042\u308b\u300d\u3068\u8a2d\u5b9a\nalpha_prior &lt;- 5\nbeta_prior &lt;- 5\n\n# \u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u89b3\u6e2c (10\u4eba\u4e2d8\u4eba\u306b\u52b9\u679c\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f)\nsuccesses &lt;- 8\ntrials &lt;- 10\n\n# \u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\nalpha_posterior &lt;- alpha_prior + successes\nbeta_posterior &lt;- beta_prior + (trials - successes)\n\n# \u78ba\u7387\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2\np &lt;- seq(0, 1, length.out = 500)\n\n# \u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u5bc6\u5ea6\nprior_density &lt;- dbeta(p, alpha_prior, beta_prior)\n\n# \u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u5bc6\u5ea6\nposterior_density &lt;- dbeta(p, alpha_posterior, beta_posterior)\n\n# \u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30d5\u30ec\u30fc\u30e0\u306e\u4f5c\u6210\ndf &lt;- data.frame(\n    p = rep(p, 2),\n    density = c(prior_density, posterior_density),\n    type = c(rep(\"\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\", length(p)), rep(\"\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\", length(p)))\n)\n\n# \u53ef\u8996\u5316\nggplot(df, aes(x = p, y = density, color = type)) +\n    geom_line(linewidth = 1.2) +\n    labs(\n        title = \"\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u6bd4\u8f03\",\n        x = \"\u85ac\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u304c\u3042\u308b\u78ba\u7387\",\n        y = \"\u78ba\u7387\u5bc6\u5ea6\",\n        color = \"\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u7a2e\u985e\"\n    ) +\n    theme_minimal() +\n    scale_color_manual(values = c(\"\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\" = \"blue\", \"\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\" = \"red\")) +\n    geom_vline(xintercept = successes \/ trials, linetype = \"dashed\", color = \"gray\", linewidth = 0.8) +\n    annotate(\"text\",\n        x = successes \/ trials + 0.05, y = max(posterior_density) * 0.8,\n        label = paste0(\"\u89b3\u6e2c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\\n(\", successes, \"\/\", trials, \")\"), color = \"gray\", hjust = 0\n    )\nggsave(\"Bayes_prior_posterior_distribution.png\", width = 8, height = 6)\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5b9f\u884c\u7d50\u679c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Bayes_prior_posterior_distribution-1024x768.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4234\" srcset=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Bayes_prior_posterior_distribution-1024x768.png 1024w, https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Bayes_prior_posterior_distribution-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Bayes_prior_posterior_distribution-768x576.png 768w, https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Bayes_prior_posterior_distribution-1536x1152.png 1536w, https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Bayes_prior_posterior_distribution-2048x1536.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u3092\u898b\u308b\u3068\u3001\u9752\u3044\u7dda\u3067\u793a\u3055\u308c\u305f<strong>\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03<\/strong>\u306f\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u5e45\u5e83\u3044\u7bc4\u56f2\u306b\u5e83\u304c\u3063\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u85ac\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u3042\u306a\u305f\u306e\u521d\u671f\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u3092\u8868\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u8d64\u3044\u7dda\u3067\u793a\u3055\u308c\u305f<strong>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03<\/strong>\u306f\u3001\u89b3\u6e2c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff0810\u4eba\u4e2d8\u4eba\u6210\u529f\uff09\u306e\u8fd1\u304f\u306b\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u304c\u79fb\u52d5\u3057\u3001\u3088\u308a\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u30d7\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u85ac\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u3042\u306a\u305f\u306e\u4fe1\u5ff5\u304c\u66f4\u65b0\u3055\u308c\u3001\u3088\u308a\u78ba\u4fe1\u5ea6\u304c\u9ad8\u307e\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u307e\u3068\u3081<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b<strong>\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03<\/strong>\u3068<strong>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03<\/strong>\u306f\u3001\u300c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u898b\u308b\u524d\u306e\u77e5\u8b58\u300d\u3068\u300c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u898b\u305f\u5f8c\u306e\u77e5\u8b58\u300d\u3092\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u8868\u3057\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u77e5\u8b58\u304c\u66f4\u65b0\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u304f\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u3092\u660e\u78ba\u306b\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u5b9d\u63a2\u3057\u306e\u6bd4\u55a9\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u6f20\u7136\u3068\u3057\u305f\u671f\u5f85\u304c\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306a\u60c5\u5831\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u78ba\u4fe1\u306b\u5909\u308f\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u306f\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u306e\u300c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u300d\u304c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u6d17\u7df4\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u304f\u904e\u7a0b\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u5f37\u529b\u306a\u67a0\u7d44\u307f\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3057\u3066\u304f\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3042\u306a\u305f\u3082\u3001\u65e5\u3005\u306e\u751f\u6d3b\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u300c\u3053\u308c\u307e\u3067\u306e\u7d4c\u9a13\u300d\u3068\u300c\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u60c5\u5831\u300d\u304c\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3042\u306a\u305f\u306e\u5224\u65ad\u3092\u5f62\u6210\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u306e\u8996\u70b9\u304b\u3089\u8003\u3048\u3066\u307f\u3066\u306f\u3069\u3046\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b\uff1f<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u300c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304b\u3089\u4f55\u304b\u3092\u5b66\u3076\u300d\u3068\u304d\u3001\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u306f\u5e38\u306b\u4f55\u3089\u304b\u306e\u300c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u300d\u3092\u6301\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u300c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u300d\u3092\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u3066\u66f4\u65b0\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3001\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u4eba\u9593\u3089\u3057\u3044\u601d\u8003\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u3092\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u306b\u8868\u73fe\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3002\u4eca\u56de\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3068\u306a\u308b\u300c\u4e8b\u524d [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4234,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"swell_btn_cv_data":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-45"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Bayes_prior_posterior_distribution.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4233","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4233"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4233\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4235,"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4233\/revisions\/4235"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4234"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4233"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4233"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4233"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}