{"id":4236,"date":"2025-07-13T20:51:02","date_gmt":"2025-07-13T11:51:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/?p=4236"},"modified":"2025-07-13T20:51:05","modified_gmt":"2025-07-13T11:51:05","slug":"integrating-evidence-with-bayesian-meta-analysis-a-complete-guide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/toukei-er\/entry\/integrating-evidence-with-bayesian-meta-analysis-a-complete-guide\/","title":{"rendered":"\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u306e\u529b\u3067\u30a8\u30d3\u30c7\u30f3\u30b9\u3092\u7d71\u5408\u3059\u308b\uff1a\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u5fb9\u5e95\u89e3\u8aac"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8907\u6570\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u7d71\u5408\u3057\u3001\u3088\u308a\u5f37\u56fa\u306a\u30a8\u30d3\u30c7\u30f3\u30b9\u3092\u5c0e\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306f\u3001\u533b\u7642\u3084\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u306a\u3069\u591a\u5c90\u306b\u308f\u305f\u308b\u5206\u91ce\u3067\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u5f79\u5272\u3092\u679c\u305f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u5f93\u6765\u306e\u983b\u5ea6\u8ad6\u7684\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u3067\u306f\u6271\u3044\u306b\u304f\u3044\u554f\u984c\u3084\u3001\u4e8b\u524d\u60c5\u5831\u306e\u6d3b\u7528\u3068\u3044\u3063\u305f\u70b9\u3067\u9650\u754c\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002\u305d\u3053\u3067\u8fd1\u5e74\u6ce8\u76ee\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u304c\u3001<strong>\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u306e\u5b9a\u7406<\/strong>\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u672c\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306e\u6982\u8981\u304b\u3089\u3001\u305d\u306e\u30e1\u30ea\u30c3\u30c8\u3001\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306a\u8a08\u7b97\u4f8b\u3001\u305d\u3057\u3066\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u89e3\u91c8\u307e\u3067\u3092\u5206\u304b\u308a\u3084\u3059\u304f\u89e3\u8aac\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u306e\u5b9a\u7406\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306e\u6982\u8981<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u306e\u5b9a\u7406\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306f\u3001\u5f93\u6765\u306e\u983b\u5ea6\u8ad6\u7684\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u3068\u306f\u7570\u306a\u308a\u3001<strong>\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u3092\u78ba\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8868\u73fe\u3057\u3001\u4e8b\u524d\u60c5\u5831\uff08\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u3068\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff08\u5c24\u5ea6\uff09\u3092\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u4e8b\u5f8c\u60c5\u5831\uff08\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u3092\u5c0e\u304d\u51fa\u3059<\/strong>\u70b9\u304c\u7279\u5fb4\u3060\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u3084\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30b5\u30a4\u30ba\u306e\u5c0f\u3055\u3055\u3068\u3044\u3063\u305f\u8ab2\u984c\u306b\u67d4\u8edf\u306b\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3057\u3001\u3088\u308a\u5305\u62ec\u7684\u306a\u63a8\u8ad6\u3092\u53ef\u80fd\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3b\u306a\u624b\u6cd5\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3082\u306e\u304c\u6319\u3052\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\uff08Bayesian Meta-Analysis\uff09<\/strong>: \u8907\u6570\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u304b\u3089\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u305f\u52b9\u679c\u91cf\u3092\u7d71\u5408\u3057\u3001\u5171\u901a\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u91cf\u3084\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u306e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3092\u63a8\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3002\u500b\u3005\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u6761\u4ef6\u4ed8\u304d\u3067\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u5316\u3057\u3001\u7d71\u5408\u3055\u308c\u305f\u52b9\u679c\u91cf\u306e\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u5c0e\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30e1\u30bf\u56de\u5e30\uff08Bayesian Meta-Regression\uff09<\/strong>: \u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306b\u56de\u5e30\u5206\u6790\u306e\u8981\u7d20\u3092\u5c0e\u5165\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\u5171\u5909\u91cf\uff08\u4f8b\uff1a\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u3001\u60a3\u8005\u306e\u5e74\u9f62\u5c64\u3001\u51fa\u7248\u5e74\u306a\u3069\uff09\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u306a\u305c\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u3067\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u7570\u306a\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3092\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u63a2\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u53ef\u80fd\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306e\u4f7f\u3044\u6240<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306f\u3001\u7279\u306b\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u305d\u306e\u771f\u4fa1\u3092\u767a\u63ee\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u4e8b\u524d\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u6d3b\u7528\u3057\u305f\u3044\u5834\u5408<\/strong>: \u904e\u53bb\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u679c\u3084\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u306e\u77e5\u898b\u306a\u3069\u3001\u5206\u6790\u306b\u5229\u7528\u3067\u304d\u308b\u4e8b\u524d\u60c5\u5831\u304c\u3042\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306b\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u7d44\u307f\u8fbc\u3080\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3088\u308a\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u63a8\u5b9a\u304c\u53ef\u80fd\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30b5\u30a4\u30ba\u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u7814\u7a76\u304c\u591a\u3044\u5834\u5408<\/strong>: \u500b\u3005\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30b5\u30a4\u30ba\u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u5834\u5408\u3067\u3082\u3001\u4e8b\u524d\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u6d3b\u7528\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3001MCMC\uff08\u30de\u30eb\u30b3\u30d5\u9023\u9396\u30e2\u30f3\u30c6\u30ab\u30eb\u30ed\u6cd5\uff09\u306a\u3069\u306e\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u5b89\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u63a8\u5b9a\u3092\u884c\u3046\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u3092\u660e\u793a\u7684\u306b\u8868\u73fe\u3057\u305f\u3044\u5834\u5408<\/strong>: \u63a8\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u308b\u52b9\u679c\u91cf\u304c\u70b9\u63a8\u5b9a\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u305d\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u3092\u8996\u899a\u7684\u306b\u7406\u89e3\u3057\u3084\u3059\u304f\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u3092\u3088\u308a\u8a73\u7d30\u306b\u691c\u8a0e\u3057\u305f\u3044\u5834\u5408<\/strong>: \u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30e1\u30bf\u56de\u5e30\u3092\u7528\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u306e\u539f\u56e0\u3068\u306a\u308b\u8981\u56e0\u3092\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u306b\u5206\u6790\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u30a8\u30d3\u30c7\u30f3\u30b9\u306e\u7d2f\u7a4d\u7684\u306a\u7d71\u5408<\/strong>: \u65b0\u3057\u3044\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\u305f\u3073\u306b\u3001\u65e2\u5b58\u306e\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3068\u3057\u3066\u66f4\u65b0\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304f\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u30a8\u30d3\u30c7\u30f3\u30b9\u3092\u7d99\u7d9a\u7684\u306b\u7d71\u5408\u3057\u3001\u30ea\u30a2\u30eb\u30bf\u30a4\u30e0\u3067\u306e\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u306b\u5f79\u7acb\u3066\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"biost-2007110293\" class=\"biost- biost-entity-placement\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/kmhl\">\uff1e\uff1e\u3082\u3046\u7d71\u8a08\u3067\u60a9\u3080\u306e\u306f\u7d42\u308f\u308a\u306b\u3057\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304b\uff1f\u00a0<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\r\n<a href=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/kmhl\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2794 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/best-biostatistics.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/bn_r_03.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"327\" \/><\/a>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000; font-size: 20px;\"><strong><span class=\"marker2\">\u21911\u4e07\u4eba\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306e\u533b\u7642\u5f93\u4e8b\u8005\u304c\u8cfc\u8aad\u4e2d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/div><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5177\u4f53\u4f8b\u3068 R \u8a08\u7b97\u4f8b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u3001\u7c21\u5358\u306a\u5177\u4f53\u4f8b\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u8907\u6570\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u304b\u3089\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u305f\u4e8c\u5024\u5909\u6570\u306e\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u3092\u7d71\u5408\u3059\u308b\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306eR\u3067\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u4f8b\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002\u4eca\u56de\u306f<code>Bayesmeta<\/code>\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306b\u52a0\u3048\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30e1\u30bf\u56de\u5e30\u306e\u4f8b\u3082\u793a\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4f8b1\uff1a\u3042\u308b\u6cbb\u7642\u6cd5\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8907\u6570\u306e\u81e8\u5e8a\u8a66\u9a13\u306e\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u306e\u7d71\u5408\uff08<code>Bayesmeta<\/code>\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\uff09<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u67b6\u7a7a\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><td>\u7814\u7a76ID<\/td><td>\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4 (OR)<\/td><td>95%\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u4e0b\u9650<\/td><td>95%\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u4e0a\u9650<\/td><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>1<\/td><td>1.5<\/td><td>0.8<\/td><td>2.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2<\/td><td>2.0<\/td><td>1.2<\/td><td>3.3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3<\/td><td>1.3<\/td><td>0.7<\/td><td>2.4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4<\/td><td>1.8<\/td><td>1.0<\/td><td>3.2<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u306e\u5bfe\u6570\uff08log OR\uff09\u3068\u305d\u306e\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee\uff08SE\uff09\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>$\\log(\\text{OR})$\u306e\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee\u306f\u3001<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>$$\\frac{\\log(\\text{\u4e0a\u9650}) &#8211; \\log(\\text{\u4e0b\u9650})}{2 \\times 1.96}$$<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3067\u8fd1\u4f3c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>R \u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># bayesmeta\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3068\u8aad\u307f\u8fbc\u307f\uff08\u521d\u56de\u306e\u307f\uff09\n# install.packages(\"bayesmeta\")\nlibrary(bayesmeta)\n\n# \u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u6e96\u5099 (\u67b6\u7a7a\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf)\nstudy_id &lt;- c(1, 2, 3, 4)\nor &lt;- c(1.5, 2.0, 1.3, 1.8)\nlower_ci &lt;- c(0.8, 1.2, 0.7, 1.0)\nupper_ci &lt;- c(2.8, 3.3, 2.4, 3.2)\n\n# \u5bfe\u6570\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u3068\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\nlog_or &lt;- log(or)\nse_log_or &lt;- (log(upper_ci) - log(lower_ci)) \/ (2 * 1.96)\n\n# bayesmeta\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\n# y: \u52b9\u679c\u91cf (log_or)\n# sigma: \u52b9\u679c\u91cf\u306e\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee (se_log_or)\nbm_result &lt;- bayesmeta(y=log_or, sigma=se_log_or)\n\n# \u7d50\u679c\u306e\u30b5\u30de\u30ea\u30fc\u8868\u793a\nsummary(bm_result)<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5b9f\u884c\u7d50\u679c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>> # \u7d50\u679c\u306e\u30b5\u30de\u30ea\u30fc\u8868\u793a\n> summary(bm_result)\n 'bayesmeta' object.\ndata (4 estimates):\n           y     sigma\n01 0.4054651 0.3195824\n02 0.6931472 0.2580615\n03 0.2623643 0.3143224\n04 0.5877867 0.2967221\n\ntau prior (improper):\nuniform(min=0, max=Inf) \n\nmu prior (improper):\nuniform(min=-Inf, max=Inf)\n\nML and MAP estimates:\n             tau        mu\nML joint       0 0.5122391\nML marginal    0 0.5071712\nMAP joint      0 0.5122413\nMAP marginal   0 0.5072305\n\nmarginal posterior summary:\n                tau          mu      theta\nmode      0.0000000  0.50723049  0.5097047\nmedian    0.2150901  0.50456349  0.5061422\nmean      0.3679468  0.50200263  0.5020026\nsd               NA  0.39345130  0.8284503\n95% lower 0.0000000 -0.07962523 -0.6943959\n95% upper 1.1116819  1.07026688  1.6802258\n\n(quoted intervals are shortest credible intervals.)\n\nrelative heterogeneity I^2 (posterior median): 0.3462448 \n> <\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p><code>Bayesmeta<\/code>\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u306f\u3001\u4e3b\u8981\u306a\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\uff08\u4e00\u69d8\u5206\u5e03\u306a\u3069\uff09\u3092\u7c21\u5358\u306b\u6307\u5b9a\u3067\u304d\u3001MCMC\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u306a\u3069\u3092\u610f\u8b58\u305b\u305a\u306b\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u521d\u5fc3\u8005\u306b\u3082\u6271\u3044\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3002<code>summary(bm_result)<\/code>\u3067\u3001\u7d71\u5408\u52b9\u679c\u91cf\uff08<code>mu<\/code>\uff09\u3068\u7570\u8cea\u6027\uff08<code>tau<\/code>\uff09\u306e\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5e73\u5747\u3001\u4e2d\u592e\u5024\u3001\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593\u306a\u3069\u304c\u307e\u3068\u3081\u3066\u8868\u793a\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u7d50\u679c\u89e3\u91c8<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. \u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u6982\u8981<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>4\u3064\u306e\u7814\u7a76<\/strong>\u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u5404\u7814\u7a76\u306e\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\uff08OR\uff09\u306f1.3\u301c2.0\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5bfe\u6570\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u306b\u5909\u63db\u3057\u3066\u5206\u6790\u304c\u884c\u308f\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. \u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u03c4\uff08\u7570\u8cea\u6027\uff09\u306e\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03<\/strong>: \u4e00\u69d8\u5206\u5e03\uff080\u301c\u221e\uff09- \u975e\u60c5\u5831\u7684\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u03bc\uff08\u5168\u4f53\u52b9\u679c\u91cf\uff09\u306e\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03<\/strong>: \u4e00\u69d8\u5206\u5e03\uff08-\u221e\u301c\u221e\uff09- \u975e\u60c5\u5831\u7684\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. \u4e3b\u8981\u306a\u7d50\u679c<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5168\u4f53\u52b9\u679c\u91cf\uff08\u03bc\uff09<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5e73\u5747<\/strong>: 0.502\uff08\u5bfe\u6570\u30b9\u30b1\u30fc\u30eb\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u4e2d\u592e\u5024<\/strong>: 0.505<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>95%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593<\/strong>: -0.080 \u301c 1.070<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6a19\u6e96\u504f\u5dee<\/strong>: 0.393<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u89e3\u91c8<\/strong>: \u5bfe\u6570\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd40.502\u306f\u3001\u5143\u306e\u30b9\u30b1\u30fc\u30eb\u3067\u306f\u7d041.65\u306e\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u306b\u76f8\u5f53\u3059\u308b\u300295%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593\u304c0\u3092\u542b\u3093\u3067\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u6709\u610f\u306a\u52b9\u679c\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u306f\u8a00\u3048\u306a\u3044\u7d50\u679c\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7570\u8cea\u6027\uff08\u03c4\uff09<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5e73\u5747<\/strong>: 0.368<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u4e2d\u592e\u5024<\/strong>: 0.215<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>95%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593<\/strong>: 0.000 \u301c 1.112<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>I\u00b2\u7d71\u8a08\u91cf<\/strong>: 34.6%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u89e3\u91c8<\/strong>:<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u306f\u4e2d\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff08I\u00b2 = 34.6%\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>95%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593\u306e\u4e0b\u9650\u304c0\u3067\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u304c\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u6709\u610f\u3068\u306f\u8a00\u3048\u306a\u3044<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u4e0a\u9650\u304c1.112\u3068\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u5927\u304d\u3044\u305f\u3081\u3001\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306f\u6b8b\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. \u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u63a8\u5b9a\u91cf\u306e\u6bd4\u8f03<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>ML\uff08\u6700\u5c24\uff09\u63a8\u5b9a<\/strong>: \u03c4 = 0, \u03bc = 0.507<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>MAP\uff08\u6700\u5927\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\uff09\u63a8\u5b9a<\/strong>: \u03c4 = 0, \u03bc = 0.507<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e21\u65b9\u306e\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u304c\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u8fd1\u3044\u5024\u3068\u306a\u3063\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u63a8\u5b9a\u306e\u5b89\u5b9a\u6027\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. \u5b9f\u7528\u7684\u306a\u89e3\u91c8<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u52b9\u679c\u306e\u65b9\u5411\u6027<\/strong>: \u4ecb\u5165\u306f\u6b63\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\uff08\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4 > 1\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u4e00\u8cab\u6027<\/strong>: \u4e2d\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306e\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u6709\u610f\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5b9f\u7528\u6027<\/strong>: 95%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593\u304c\u5b9f\u7528\u7684\u306a\u7bc4\u56f2\u5185\u306b\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u306b\u610f\u5473\u306e\u3042\u308b\u52b9\u679c\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u306f\u3001\u4ecb\u5165\u306e\u6709\u52b9\u6027\u3092\u793a\u5506\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3055\u3089\u306a\u308b\u691c\u8a0e\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4f8b2\uff1a\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u304c\u52b9\u679c\u306b\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3059\u308b\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30e1\u30bf\u56de\u5e30<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30e1\u30bf\u56de\u5e30\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3001<code>Bayesmeta<\/code>\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u5358\u4f53\u3067\u306f\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u306a\u6a5f\u80fd\u306f\u63d0\u4f9b\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001<code>Bayesmeta<\/code>\u304c\u4e3b\u306b\u5171\u901a\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u91cf\u3068\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u306e\u63a8\u5b9a\u306b\u7126\u70b9\u3092\u5f53\u3066\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3060\u3002\u30e1\u30bf\u56de\u5e30\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u8907\u96d1\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u69cb\u7bc9\u3059\u308b\u306b\u306f\u3001<code>rstan<\/code>\u3084<code>brms<\/code>\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u3088\u308a\u6c4e\u7528\u7684\u306a\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u7d71\u8a08\u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u3001<code>brms<\/code>\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30e1\u30bf\u56de\u5e30\u306e\u4f8b\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002<code>brms<\/code>\u306fStan\u3092\u30d0\u30c3\u30af\u30a8\u30f3\u30c9\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5229\u7528\u3057\u3001\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u67d4\u8edf\u306a\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u8a18\u8ff0\u3067\u304d\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u8907\u96d1\u306a\u30e1\u30bf\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3082\u5bfe\u5fdc\u53ef\u80fd\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u67b6\u7a7a\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u300c\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\uff08\u6708\uff09\u300d\u3092\u8ffd\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><td>\u7814\u7a76ID<\/td><td>\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4 (OR)<\/td><td>95%\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u4e0b\u9650<\/td><td>95%\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u4e0a\u9650<\/td><td>\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593 (\u6708)<\/td><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>1<\/td><td>1.5<\/td><td>0.8<\/td><td>2.8<\/td><td>3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2<\/td><td>2.0<\/td><td>1.2<\/td><td>3.3<\/td><td>6<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3<\/td><td>1.3<\/td><td>0.7<\/td><td>2.4<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4<\/td><td>1.8<\/td><td>1.0<\/td><td>3.2<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5<\/td><td>2.5<\/td><td>1.5<\/td><td>4.0<\/td><td>7<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6<\/td><td>1.2<\/td><td>0.6<\/td><td>2.3<\/td><td>4<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>R \u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># brms\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3068\u8aad\u307f\u8fbc\u307f\uff08\u521d\u56de\u306e\u307f\uff09\n# install.packages(\"brms\")\nlibrary(brms)\n\n# \u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u6e96\u5099 (\u67b6\u7a7a\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u3092\u8ffd\u52a0)\nstudy_id_mr &lt;- c(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)\nor_mr &lt;- c(1.5, 2.0, 1.3, 1.8, 2.5, 1.2)\nlower_ci_mr &lt;- c(0.8, 1.2, 0.7, 1.0, 1.5, 0.6)\nupper_ci_mr &lt;- c(2.8, 3.3, 2.4, 3.2, 4.0, 2.3)\nduration_mr &lt;- c(3, 6, 2, 5, 7, 4) # \u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593 (\u6708)\n\n# \u5bfe\u6570\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u3068\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\nlog_or_mr &lt;- log(or_mr)\nse_log_or_mr &lt;- (log(upper_ci_mr) - log(lower_ci_mr)) \/ (2 * 1.96)\n\n# \u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30d5\u30ec\u30fc\u30e0\u306e\u4f5c\u6210\ndata_meta_regression &lt;- data.frame(study_id_mr, log_or_mr, se_log_or_mr, duration_mr)\nprint(data_meta_regression)\n\n# brms\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30e1\u30bf\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\n# formula: log_or_mr | se(se_log_or_mr) \u306f\u300clog_or_mr\u3092\u3001\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5deese_log_or_mr\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u3066\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u5316\u3059\u308b\u300d\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3059\u308b\n#                   ~ duration_mr + (1 | study_id_mr) \u306f\u300c\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u3092\u56fa\u5b9a\u52b9\u679c\u3001\u7814\u7a76ID\u3092\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u30e0\u52b9\u679c\u3068\u3057\u3066\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u542b\u3081\u308b\u300d\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3059\u308b\n# family: gaussian \u306f\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\u306b\u5f93\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002\u52b9\u679c\u91cf\u304c\u5bfe\u6570\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u306a\u306e\u3067\u9069\u5207\u3002\n# prior: \u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u6307\u5b9a\u3002\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u30c7\u30d5\u30a9\u30eb\u30c8\uff08\u975e\u60c5\u5831\u7684\u306a\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\u3001\u5fc5\u8981\u306b\u5fdc\u3058\u3066\u8abf\u6574\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002\n# iter, chains: MCMC\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u53cd\u5fa9\u56de\u6570\u3068\u30c1\u30a7\u30fc\u30f3\u6570\n# silent: true \u3067\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u4e2d\u306e\u30e1\u30c3\u30bb\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u975e\u8868\u793a\u306b\u3059\u308b\nbrm_model_mr &lt;- brm(log_or_mr | se(se_log_or_mr) ~ duration_mr + (1 | study_id_mr), \n                    data = data_meta_regression, \n                    family = gaussian(), \n                    prior = prior(normal(0, 10), class = b), # \u56de\u5e30\u4fc2\u6570\u306e\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\n                    iter = 2000, chains = 4, silent = TRUE)\n# \n# # \u7d50\u679c\u306e\u30b5\u30de\u30ea\u30fc\nsummary(brm_model_mr)<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5b9f\u884c\u7d50\u679c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>> # # \u7d50\u679c\u306e\u30b5\u30de\u30ea\u30fc\n> summary(brm_model_mr)\n Family: gaussian \n  Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity \nFormula: log_or_mr | se(se_log_or_mr) ~ duration_mr + (1 | study_id_mr) \n   Data: data_meta_regression (Number of observations: 6) \n  Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;\n         total post-warmup draws = 4000\n\nMultilevel Hyperparameters:\n~study_id_mr (Number of levels: 6) \n              Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS\nsd(Intercept)     0.19      0.18     0.01     0.67 1.00     1435     1260\n\nRegression Coefficients:\n            Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS\nIntercept      -0.09      0.45    -0.97     0.78 1.00     1926     1340\nduration_mr     0.13      0.09    -0.04     0.31 1.00     1952     1404\n\nFurther Distributional Parameters:\n      Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS\nsigma     0.00      0.00     0.00     0.00   NA       NA       NA\n\nDraws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS\nand Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential\nscale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).\n\u8b66\u544a\u30e1\u30c3\u30bb\u30fc\u30b8:\nThere were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. Increasing adapt_delta above 0.8 may help. See http:\/\/mc-stan.org\/misc\/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup \n> \n> \n\n> # # \u7d50\u679c\u306e\u30b5\u30de\u30ea\u30fc\n> summary(brm_model_mr)\n Family: gaussian \n  Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity \nFormula: log_or_mr | se(se_log_or_mr) ~ duration_mr + (1 | study_id_mr) \n   Data: data_meta_regression (Number of observations: 6) \n  Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;\n         total post-warmup draws = 4000\n\nMultilevel Hyperparameters:\n~study_id_mr (Number of levels: 6) \n              Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS\nsd(Intercept)     0.19      0.20     0.00     0.71 1.00      895      840\n\nRegression Coefficients:\n            Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS\nIntercept      -0.08      0.49    -1.07     0.82 1.00     1757     1414\nduration_mr     0.13      0.10    -0.04     0.33 1.00     1787     1342\n\nFurther Distributional Parameters:\n      Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS\nsigma     0.00      0.00     0.00     0.00   NA       NA       NA\n\nDraws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS\nand Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential\nscale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).\n> <\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30e1\u30bf\u56de\u5e30\u5206\u6790\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u89e3\u91c8<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u6982\u8981<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u5206\u6790\u5bfe\u8c61<\/strong>: 6\u3064\u306e\u7814\u7a76<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5f93\u5c5e\u5909\u6570<\/strong>: \u5bfe\u6570\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\uff08log_or_mr\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u72ec\u7acb\u5909\u6570<\/strong>: \u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\uff08duration_mr\u3001\u6708\u5358\u4f4d\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u69cb\u9020<\/strong>: \u968e\u5c64\u7684\u7dda\u5f62\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\uff08\u7814\u7a76ID\u3092\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u30e0\u52b9\u679c\u3068\u3057\u3066\u542b\u3080\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. \u4e3b\u8981\u306a\u7d50\u679c<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u56fa\u5b9a\u52b9\u679c\uff08Population-Level Effects\uff09<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5207\u7247\uff08Intercept\uff09<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024<\/strong>: -0.09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee<\/strong>: 0.45<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>95%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593<\/strong>: -0.97 \u301c 0.78<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u306e\u52b9\u679c\uff08duration_mr\uff09<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024<\/strong>: 0.13<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee<\/strong>: 0.09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>95%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593<\/strong>: -0.04 \u301c 0.31<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u30e0\u52b9\u679c\uff08Multilevel Hyperparameters\uff09<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u6a19\u6e96\u504f\u5dee\uff08sd(Intercept)\uff09<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024<\/strong>: 0.19<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee<\/strong>: 0.18<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>95%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593<\/strong>: 0.01 \u301c 0.67<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. \u7d50\u679c\u306e\u89e3\u91c8<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6b63\u306e\u4fc2\u6570\uff080.13\uff09<\/strong>: \u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u304c\u9577\u304f\u306a\u308b\u307b\u3069\u3001\u5bfe\u6570\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u304c\u5897\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u50be\u5411<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>95%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593<\/strong>: -0.04 \u301c 0.31\uff080\u3092\u542b\u3080\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u89e3\u91c8<\/strong>: \u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u306f\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u6709\u610f\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\uff08p > 0.05\u76f8\u5f53\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5b9f\u7528\u7684\u306a\u610f\u5473<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u304c1\u30f6\u6708\u5897\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u3054\u3068\u306b\u3001\u5bfe\u6570\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u304c\u5e73\u57470.13\u5897\u52a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5143\u306e\u30b9\u30b1\u30fc\u30eb\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u304c1\u30f6\u6708\u5897\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u3054\u3068\u306b\u3001\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u304c\u7d041.14\u500d\uff08$e^{0.13}$\uff09\u5897\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u50be\u5411<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u3053\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u306f\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u78ba\u5b9f\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u7570\u8cea\u6027<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6a19\u6e96\u504f\u5dee: 0.19 <\/strong>\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u3067\u4e2d\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306e\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u304c\u5b58\u5728<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>95%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593<\/strong>: 0.01 \u301c 0.67\uff08\u4e0b\u9650\u304c0\u306b\u8fd1\u3044\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u89e3\u91c8<\/strong>: \u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u306f\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u304c\u3001\u5b58\u5728\u3059\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8a3a\u65ad<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u53ce\u675f\u6027<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Rhat\u5024<\/strong>: \u3059\u3079\u30661.00\uff08\u826f\u597d\u306a\u53ce\u675f\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Effective Sample Size<\/strong>: \u5341\u5206\u306a\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30b5\u30a4\u30ba<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8b66\u544a<\/strong>: 2\u3064\u306e\u767a\u6563\u9077\u79fb\u304c\u767a\u751f\uff08adapt_delta\u306e\u8abf\u6574\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u9069\u5408\u5ea6<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>sigma<\/strong>: 0.00\uff08\u6e2c\u5b9a\u8aa4\u5dee\u304c\u65e2\u306b\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8003\u616e\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. \u5b9f\u7528\u7684\u306a\u7d50\u8ad6<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u306e\u52b9\u679c<\/strong>: \u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u304c\u9577\u3044\u307b\u3069\u52b9\u679c\u304c\u5927\u304d\u304f\u306a\u308b\u50be\u5411\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u78ba\u5b9f\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u610f\u7fa9<\/strong>: \u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u306e\u5ef6\u9577\u306b\u3088\u308b\u52b9\u679c\u5897\u52a0\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306f\u793a\u5506\u3055\u308c\u308b\u304c\u3001\u3055\u3089\u306a\u308b\u7814\u7a76\u304c\u5fc5\u8981<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u4e00\u8cab\u6027<\/strong>: \u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u826f\u597d\u306a\u4e00\u8cab\u6027\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u63a8\u5968\u4e8b\u9805<\/strong>:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u3088\u308a\u591a\u304f\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u306e\u691c\u8a3c\u304c\u5fc5\u8981<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u306e\u6700\u9069\u5316\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u3055\u3089\u306a\u308b\u691c\u8a0e\u304c\u63a8\u5968\u3055\u308c\u308b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u306f\u3001\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u3068\u52b9\u679c\u91cf\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u4e88\u5099\u7684\u306a\u77e5\u898b\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\u3001\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306a\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u306f\u9650\u5b9a\u7684\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4fee\u6b63\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30e1\u30bf\u56de\u5e30\u5206\u6790\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u89e3\u91c8<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u8a3a\u65ad\u306e\u6539\u5584<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u767a\u6563\u9077\u79fb<\/strong>: \u8b66\u544a\u30e1\u30c3\u30bb\u30fc\u30b8\u304c\u89e3\u6d88\u3055\u308c\u3001MCMC\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u304c\u5b89\u5b9a\u5316<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>adapt_delta=0.995<\/strong>: \u3088\u308a\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u306a\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u8a2d\u5b9a\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u53ce\u675f\u6027\u304c\u5411\u4e0a<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. \u4e3b\u8981\u306a\u7d50\u679c\uff08\u4fee\u6b63\u7248\uff09<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u56fa\u5b9a\u52b9\u679c\uff08Population-Level Effects\uff09<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5207\u7247\uff08Intercept\uff09<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024<\/strong>: -0.08<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee<\/strong>: 0.49<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>95%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593<\/strong>: -1.07 \u301c 0.82<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u306e\u52b9\u679c\uff08duration_mr\uff09<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024<\/strong>: 0.13<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee<\/strong>: 0.10<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>95%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593<\/strong>: -0.04 \u301c 0.33<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u30e0\u52b9\u679c\uff08Multilevel Hyperparameters\uff09<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u6a19\u6e96\u504f\u5dee\uff08sd(Intercept)\uff09<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024<\/strong>: 0.19<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee<\/strong>: 0.20<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>95%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593<\/strong>: 0.00 \u301c 0.71<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. \u4fee\u6b63\u3055\u308c\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u89e3\u91c8<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6b63\u306e\u4fc2\u6570\uff080.13\uff09<\/strong>: \u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u304c\u9577\u304f\u306a\u308b\u307b\u3069\u3001\u5bfe\u6570\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u304c\u5897\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u50be\u5411<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>95%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593<\/strong>: -0.04 \u301c 0.33\uff080\u3092\u542b\u3080\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u89e3\u91c8<\/strong>: \u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u306f\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u6709\u610f\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u6b63\u306e\u50be\u5411\u306f\u7dad\u6301<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5b9f\u7528\u7684\u306a\u610f\u5473<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u304c1\u30f6\u6708\u5897\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u3054\u3068\u306b\u3001\u5bfe\u6570\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u304c\u5e73\u57470.13\u5897\u52a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5143\u306e\u30b9\u30b1\u30fc\u30eb\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u304c1\u30f6\u6708\u5897\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u3054\u3068\u306b\u3001\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u304c\u7d041.14\u500d\uff08$e^{0.13}$\uff09\u5897\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u50be\u5411<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593\u306e\u4e0a\u9650\uff080.33\uff09\u306f\u3001\u6700\u5927\u30671.39\u500d\uff08$e^{0.33}$\uff09\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u5897\u52a0\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3092\u793a\u5506<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u7570\u8cea\u6027<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6a19\u6e96\u504f\u5dee: 0.19<\/strong> \u7814\u7a76\u9593\u3067\u4e2d\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306e\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u304c\u5b58\u5728<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>95%\u4fe1\u7528\u533a\u9593<\/strong>: 0.00 \u301c 0.71\uff08\u4e0b\u9650\u304c0\u306b\u8fd1\u3044\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u89e3\u91c8<\/strong>: \u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u306f\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u304c\u3001\u5b58\u5728\u3059\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8a3a\u65ad\uff08\u6539\u5584\u5f8c\uff09<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u53ce\u675f\u6027<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Rhat\u5024<\/strong>: \u3059\u3079\u30661.00\uff08\u826f\u597d\u306a\u53ce\u675f\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Effective Sample Size<\/strong>: \u5341\u5206\u306a\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30b5\u30a4\u30ba<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u767a\u6563\u9077\u79fb<\/strong>: \u89e3\u6d88\u3055\u308c\u3001\u5b89\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u9069\u5408\u5ea6<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>sigma<\/strong>: 0.00\uff08\u6e2c\u5b9a\u8aa4\u5dee\u304c\u65e2\u306b\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8003\u616e\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. \u4fee\u6b63\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5b9f\u7528\u7684\u306a\u7d50\u8ad6<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u306e\u52b9\u679c<\/strong>:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u304c\u9577\u3044\u307b\u3069\u52b9\u679c\u304c\u5927\u304d\u304f\u306a\u308b\u50be\u5411\u304c\u3042\u308b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u78ba\u5b9f\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u306b\u610f\u5473\u306e\u3042\u308b\u52b9\u679c\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6700\u5927\u3067\u7d0439%\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u5897\u52a0\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u610f\u7fa9<\/strong>:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u306e\u5ef6\u9577\u306b\u3088\u308b\u52b9\u679c\u5897\u52a0\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306f\u793a\u5506\u3055\u308c\u308b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u500b\u5225\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u3084\u75be\u60a3\u306b\u5fdc\u3058\u305f\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u306e\u6700\u9069\u5316\u304c\u91cd\u8981<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u4e00\u8cab\u6027<\/strong>:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u826f\u597d\u306a\u4e00\u8cab\u6027\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7570\u8cea\u6027\u306f\u5b58\u5728\u3059\u308b\u304c\u3001\u7ba1\u7406\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u7bc4\u56f2\u5185<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u63a8\u5968\u4e8b\u9805<\/strong>:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u3088\u308a\u591a\u304f\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u306e\u691c\u8a3c\u304c\u5fc5\u8981<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u306e\u6700\u9069\u5316\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u3055\u3089\u306a\u308b\u691c\u8a0e\u304c\u63a8\u5968\u3055\u308c\u308b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u500b\u5225\u5316\u533b\u7642\u306e\u89b3\u70b9\u304b\u3089\u306e\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u306e\u8abf\u6574\u3092\u691c\u8a0e<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6. \u6539\u5584\u70b9<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>MCMC\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u5b89\u5b9a\u6027<\/strong>: adapt_delta\u306e\u8abf\u6574\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u3088\u308a\u4fe1\u983c\u6027\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u63a8\u5b9a\u304c\u53ef\u80fd<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u4e00\u8cab\u6027<\/strong>: \u8b66\u544a\u306a\u3057\u3067\u5b89\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u305f<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u89e3\u91c8\u306e\u4fe1\u983c\u6027<\/strong>: \u767a\u6563\u9077\u79fb\u304c\u306a\u3044\u305f\u3081\u3001\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u89e3\u91c8\u306b\u3088\u308a\u81ea\u4fe1\u3092\u6301\u3066\u308b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u4fee\u6b63\u3055\u308c\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u306f\u3001\u6cbb\u7642\u671f\u9593\u3068\u52b9\u679c\u91cf\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3088\u308a\u4fe1\u983c\u6027\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u77e5\u898b\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 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